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Coronavirus epidemic will worsen in the United States, according to several epidemiological models

health-facts: covid usa

The latest epidemiological model updates predict a further increase in the daily number of Covid-19-related deaths in the United States, but a team predicts that near-universal wearing of the mask could save 40,000 lives by November.

Of 136,000 deaths officially counted Wednesday, the country should reach 151,000 by August 1 and 157,000 by August 8, according to the average of models of 23 research groups in the United States and elsewhere, published Tuesday by a team from the university from Massachusetts, the Reich Lab, on behalf of the Centers for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC). This average, one week ago, predicted 147,000 deaths on 1st August.

California, Florida and Texas, the three most populous states in the country, will each register more than a thousand more deaths in the next month, compared to the previous month, said Professor Nicholas Reich.

One of the models (IHME) at Washington State University goes further and predicted 224,000 deaths on Wednesday as of November 1. By independent model Youyang Gu, predicts 227,000 deaths by November 1, in New York.

According to the IHME group, more Americans wear masks, and fewer move around. The model has access to mobility data through mobile application partners.

“But if 95% of Americans wore masks when leaving their homes, the number (of deaths) would drop by 40,000” by November, writes the research center.